Solution Brainstorm:

Objectives from Pilot City:

Image Image

Scope: Wildfire management agencies and communities in fire-prone regions Challenge: Integrating disparate data sources (satellite imagery, ground sensors, weather data) and creating a unified detection system Purpose: Reduce wildfire detection time by 40% and improve prediction accuracy by 30% through AI-enhanced systems - Potential solutions: enhanced satellite imagery processing, AI-powered spread prediction, early detection via sensor networks, and optimized resource allocation

Team Assignments

  • Data Science Lead: Rohan Bojja
  • Backend Developer: Aarush Gowda
  • Frontend Developer: Vasanth Rajasekaran
  • ML Engineer: Nikhil Maturi
  • QA/Testing: Nathan Tejidor
  • Project Manager: Pranav Santhosh

Data (Available Sources):

  • Satellite Imagery: MODIS, VIIRS, GOES, Landsat data (fire locations, radiative power, timestamps)
  • Ground Sensors: ALERTWildfire camera networks, FireWatch, FireScout (video feeds, IoT sensor data)
  • Weather Data: NIFC, NOAA, CAL FIRE (temperature, humidity, wind speed, fuel moisture)
  • Terrain Data: USGS topographical information, vegetation density maps

Other Datasets (Data.Gov)

  • https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/california-fire-perimeters-all-5b4ee (historical wildfire burn data)
  • https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/combined-wildfire-datasets-for-the-united-states-and-certain-territories-1800s-present (historical fire locations)
  • https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/national-usfs-fire-occurrence-point-feature-layer-d3233 (point of occurrence data)

1. Satellite-Based Wildfire Detection Datasets

NASA FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System)

  • Description: Global fire detection from MODIS and VIIRS satellites.
  • Data: Fire locations, radiative power, and timestamps.
  • Format: CSV, GeoTIFF, KML, and JSON.

Sentinel-2 Fire Dataset (ESA)

  • Description: High-resolution Sentinel-2 images labeled with burned area segmentation.
  • Data: Multispectral images (10m resolution) with fire-affected areas.
  • Format: GeoTIFF.

Landsat Burned Area Data (USGS)

  • Description: Burned area mapping from Landsat 8, ideal for ML-based fire segmentation.
  • Data: Historical fire damage data across the U.S.
  • Format: GeoTIFF.

California Fire Perimeters Dataset (CAL FIRE)

  • Description: Polygon shapefiles of fire perimeters in California (historical records).
  • Format: Shapefile (.shp), KML, GeoJSON.

2. Ground-Based & Aerial Fire Imagery Datasets

ALERTWildfire Public Dataset

  • Description: High-resolution live fire detection camera feeds across the Western U.S.
  • Data: Time-lapse images of wildfire progression.
  • Use: Train ML models for early fire and smoke detection.

FireNet Dataset (Kaggle)

  • Description: Collection of labeled images of smoke and wildfires from drones and satellites.
  • Data: 40,000+ annotated wildfire images.
  • Format: PNG/JPEG.

Global Wildfire Smoke Detection Dataset

  • Description: Dataset for wildfire smoke detection using deep learning.
  • Data: High-resolution smoke images labeled for ML training.

3. Fire Weather & Sensor Data Datasets

NOAA Historical Fire Weather Data

  • Description: Includes wind, humidity, and temperature data related to historical fires.
  • Use: Train ML models to predict fire ignition likelihood.

RAWS (Remote Automated Weather Stations) Wildfire Data

  • Description: Live and historical weather sensor data from wildfire-prone regions.
  • Data: Wind speed, humidity, temperature, and fuel moisture levels.

UCI Wildfire Prediction Dataset

  • Description: A dataset focused on predicting wildfire ignition events based on environmental factors.
  • Data: Sensor and climate data, labeled by fire occurrences.

4. Fire Spread Simulation & Modeling Datasets

FARSITE Fire Behavior Prediction Data

  • Description: Fire spread model data used in the FARSITE simulator.
  • Use: ML-based fire propagation simulation.

GEOMAC Wildfire Perimeter Data

  • Description: Fire perimeters tracked over time using geospatial data.
  • Use: Training fire spread models with past real-world fire progression.

FireCast (Global Fire Risk Prediction Dataset)

  • Description: AI-powered fire probability maps updated in near real-time.
  • Data: Fire likelihood based on climate, topography, and satellite observations.

Finding the Satellite Imagery Dataset:

To identify the datasets we realized that NASA and NOAA must have open-source satellite data for fire detection. We looked at repositories like Earth Engine and NASA’s open data portals and found MODIS and VIIRS datasets specifically used for active fire detection. We also found that AWS has a registry of open geospatial datasets including Landsat and Sentinel imagery which can be used for fire detection.

Problem Brainstorm:

  • Problem specific: wildfire early detection and spread prediction (what is the difference?)
  • Differences: Traditional systems rely on human observation and basic satellite detection, while AI can enhance detection through multiple data sources
  • Would not work: Simple threshold-based detection systems - already implemented, highly limited in poor visibility conditions

Limitations of Current Wildfire Detection Systems:

  • Detection Latency: Current satellite-based systems (MODIS, VIIRS) have detection latency issues, sometimes taking hours to detect a fire after ignition.
  • Resolution Constraints: Many satellite systems have low spatial resolution, making it difficult to detect small fires in their early stages.
  • Cloud/Smoke Interference: Satellite imagery can be obstructed by cloud cover and thick smoke, leading to missed detections.
  • Limited Coverage: Ground-based camera systems only cover specific areas and have blind spots in remote regions.
  • Weather Prediction Limitations: Current models struggle to incorporate real-time changes in weather conditions that affect fire behavior.

Environments Where AI-Powered Detection Works Best:

  • AI-powered wildfire detection systems tend to perform best in environments with:
  • Multiple Data Sources: Areas with overlapping coverage from satellites, ground sensors, and weather stations provide richer datasets for AI models.
  • Historical Fire Data: Regions with well-documented fire histories allow for better training of predictive models and pattern recognition.
  • Consistent Weather Patterns: Areas with more predictable weather allow models to establish stronger correlations between conditions and fire risks.
  • Clear Line-of-Sight: Regions with less dense vegetation or mountainous terrain allow for better camera and satellite visibility.

However, AI systems struggle in:

  • Extremely Remote Areas: Locations with minimal sensor coverage or communication infrastructure limit real-time data collection.
  • Rapidly Changing Conditions: Unpredictable weather shifts or extreme events can reduce prediction accuracy.
  • Areas with Limited Historical Data: New development zones or regions without extensive fire history records provide less training data.

Solution Brainstorm:

  • IDEA: Implement multi-spectral image analysis to detect fires through smoke and cloud cover.
  • IDEA: Develop UAV deployment strategies to supplement satellite coverage in high-risk areas during peak fire seasons.
  • IDEA: Create AI models that can predict ignition likelihood based on terrain, vegetation, and weather conditions.
  • IDEA: Design a system that integrates NASA FIRMS data with local ground sensors for improved detection accuracy.
  • IDEA: Leverage topographical information to better predict fire spread patterns based on terrain features.
  • IDEA: Implement computer vision algorithms to analyze camera feeds for smoke detection before visible flames appear.
  • IDEA: Create an ML model that can distinguish between controlled burns and wildfires based on pattern recognition.
  • IDEA: Develop a system to predict fuel moisture content using satellite and weather data to anticipate fire risk.

AI-Based Optimization & Machine Learning Models

Deep Learning for Satellite Imagery Enhancement

  • Use super-resolution techniques to improve detection capability of existing satellite imagery.
  • Implement computer vision algorithms to detect smoke patterns before visible flames appear.
  • Process multi-spectral data to see through partial cloud cover and smoke.

Predictive Modeling for Fire Spread

  • Combine terrain data, vegetation information, and weather forecasts to predict likely spread patterns.
  • Use historical fire data to train models on how different fires progress under similar conditions.
  • Implement time-series forecasting to predict fire growth over hours and days.

Computer Vision for Smoke and Fire Detection

  • Process video feeds from ground-based camera networks to detect early smoke signatures.
  • Filter out false positives using multi-layer validation (thermal + visual).
  • Use temporal analysis to distinguish between dust, fog, and actual smoke.

Reinforcement Learning for Resource Allocation

  • Optimize positioning of firefighting resources based on predicted fire behavior.
  • Create digital twins of firefighting scenarios to train allocation algorithms.
  • Learn from past resource deployment effectiveness to improve future recommendations.

Graph Theory & Network Science Approaches

Graph Neural Networks for Fire Spread Modeling

  • Represent terrain as a graph where nodes are locations and edges represent potential fire spread paths.
  • Model how fire spreads across different vegetation types and terrains using graph theory.
  • Use GNNs to predict most likely paths of fire progression based on wind, slope, and fuel conditions.

Sensor Network Optimization

  • Use graph algorithms to determine optimal placement of ground sensors for maximum coverage.
  • Create a connected network of sensors that can relay information even when some nodes are compromised.
  • Implement edge computing to process sensor data locally before transmission.

Topological Data Analysis for Risk Mapping

  • Identify high-risk regions based on historical fire patterns and topological features.
  • Create persistent homology models of terrain to identify natural fire barriers and corridors.
  • Map the connectivity of vegetation to predict potential fire spread acceleration zones.

Remote Sensing & Multi-Modal Data Fusion

Satellite Data Fusion

  • Combine data from multiple satellite sources (MODIS, VIIRS, Landsat, Sentinel) to increase detection accuracy.
  • Use different spectral bands to extract complementary information about potential fire activity.
  • Implement data fusion algorithms to create comprehensive fire detection maps.

Drone-Based Detection Systems

  • Deploy UAVs with thermal and optical cameras in high-risk areas during fire season.
  • Create flight paths optimized for maximum coverage of critical areas.
  • Use onboard edge computing for preliminary fire detection before data transmission.

Multi-Sensor Data Integration

  • Combine ground sensor data with satellite imagery and weather forecasts.
  • Create a unified data model that weighs evidence from multiple sources.
  • Implement Bayesian networks to calculate fire probability based on multiple data streams.

Initial Recommendation: Implementing a Multi-Layered Detection System

The best approach would be a hybrid of enhanced satellite detection + ground sensor networks + AI-powered prediction models:

Enhanced Satellite Imagery Processing (CNN + Super-Resolution)

Purpose: Improve the quality and detection capability of existing satellite imagery.
Impact: Reduces detection latency and increases sensitivity to small fires.

Ground-Based Sensor Network

Purpose: Deploy strategic sensors in high-risk areas to supplement satellite coverage.
Impact: Provides continuous monitoring even when satellite imagery is obscured.

Graph Neural Network for Spread Prediction

Purpose: Model potential fire spread based on terrain, vegetation, and weather conditions.
Impact: Enables proactive resource allocation and more accurate evacuation planning.

Alternate AI/ML-Driven Fire Detection Proposal

An alternative approach leverages computer vision, multi-modal data fusion, and deep learning for early wildfire detection and spread prediction.

Multi-Spectral Convolutional Neural Networks

Purpose: Process satellite imagery across multiple spectral bands to detect fire signatures obscured by smoke or clouds.
Method:

  • Uses specialized CNN architectures trained on infrared, thermal, and visible light channels.
  • Implements attention mechanisms to focus on anomalous heat signatures.
    Impact: Can detect fires 2-3 hours earlier than traditional methods, especially in partially obscured conditions.

Temporal Sequence Modeling for Early Detection

Purpose: Analyze patterns over time to identify fire ignition before it becomes clearly visible.
Method:

  • Uses LSTM/GRU networks to process sequences of satellite images and sensor readings.
  • Identifies subtle changes in temperature, smoke patterns, and vegetation health.
    Impact: Can detect fires in their incipient stages, often before they register on conventional detection systems.

Weather-Integrated Fire Spread Prediction

Purpose: Accurately forecast how a fire will spread based on dynamic weather conditions.
Method:

  • Combines numerical weather prediction models with fire behavior algorithms.
  • Uses physics-informed neural networks that incorporate both data-driven learning and known physical laws of fire behavior.
    Impact: Improves spread prediction accuracy by 30-40% compared to static models.

Federated Learning for Distributed Sensor Networks

Purpose: Enable cameras and ground sensors to collectively learn fire detection patterns without sharing raw data.
Method:

  • Each sensor trains a local model on its observations.
  • Only model updates are shared, preserving privacy and reducing bandwidth requirements.
    Impact: Creates more robust detection systems that can operate in areas with limited connectivity.

Computer Vision for Smoke Detection

Purpose: Identify early-stage fires by detecting smoke before flames are visible.
Method:

  • Uses specialized CNN architectures trained on thousands of smoke images.
  • Implements semantic segmentation to differentiate smoke from clouds, fog, and dust.
    Impact: Can provide 30-60 minutes of additional warning time compared to flame-based detection.

Ensemble Learning for Multi-Source Fire Detection

Purpose: Combine predictions from multiple detection methods to reduce false positives/negatives.
Method:

  • Uses stacking or boosting to combine satellite, ground sensor, and weather-based predictions.
  • Weighs different sources based on their reliability in current conditions.
    Impact: Reduces false alarms by 40-50% while maintaining high detection sensitivity.

Non-ML Architectures for Fire Detection

If deep learning is too resource-intensive, several simpler and more interpretable approaches can still improve wildfire detection.

Multi-Threshold Detection Systems

Purpose: Use simple thresholding on multiple data sources to detect anomalies.
Method:

  • Sets adaptive thresholds for temperature, smoke density, and vegetation dryness.
  • Triggers alerts when multiple thresholds are exceeded simultaneously.
    Impact: Simpler to implement and interpret than deep learning, while still reducing false positives.

Rule-Based Expert Systems

Purpose: Encode expert knowledge about fire behavior into rule-based systems.
Method:

  • Creates a set of if-then rules based on fire science and local knowledge.
  • Examples: “If temperature > X AND humidity < Y AND wind speed > Z, then fire risk is high.”
    Impact: Transparent decision-making process that can be easily audited and explained.

Statistical Anomaly Detection

Purpose: Use statistical methods to identify unusual patterns in sensor readings.
Method:

  • Calculates moving averages and standard deviations of sensor readings.
  • Flags values that deviate significantly from expected ranges.
    Impact: Computationally efficient and can run on edge devices with limited processing power.

Remote Sensor Networks with Simple Analytics

Purpose: Deploy low-cost sensors with basic analytical capabilities.
Method:

  • Uses networks of temperature, humidity, and smoke sensors in high-risk areas.
  • Implements simple threshold-based detection algorithms.
    Impact: Provides widespread coverage without the need for complex AI infrastructure.

Optical Flow Analysis for Smoke Detection

Purpose: Detect smoke movement in video feeds without deep learning.
Method:

  • Uses traditional computer vision techniques like optical flow analysis.
  • Identifies the distinctive rising and spreading patterns of smoke.
    Impact: Can run on standard camera systems without specialized hardware.

Other

Is Sensor Coverage Adequacy the Biggest Factor in Wildfire Detection Delay?

While sensor coverage is a significant factor, it is not the only challenge in early wildfire detection. Other contributing factors include:

  • Data processing delays: Even with adequate sensor coverage, processing massive amounts of satellite and ground sensor data can create bottlenecks.
  • Signal-to-noise ratio: Distinguishing actual fire signatures from background noise, especially in early stages, remains challenging.
  • Communication infrastructure: In remote areas, limited connectivity can delay the transmission of detection alerts.

However, sensor coverage adequacy is often considered one of the key challenges because it directly affects how quickly a fire can be detected after ignition.

How Sensor Coverage Limitations Affect Detection Speed:

1. Geographical Gaps:

  • Remote areas often have minimal ground sensor coverage and rely primarily on satellite passes.
  • Satellite orbits create temporal gaps where certain areas may go unmonitored for hours.
  • Mountainous terrain can create blind spots for both satellites and ground-based camera systems.

2. Resolution and Sensitivity Issues:

  • Current satellite systems may not detect small fires until they grow large enough to register on sensors.
  • Ground-based sensors might have limited range or be affected by environmental conditions.
  • Camera systems can be hampered by visibility issues during nighttime or in foggy conditions.

3. Data Integration Challenges:

  • Different sensor systems often operate independently without effective data integration.
  • Information silos prevent the creation of a comprehensive detection network.
  • Lack of standardization makes it difficult to create a unified detection system.

Computational Solutions to Address Sensor Coverage Limitations:

To mitigate the impact of sensor coverage limitations on detection speed, several computational approaches can be implemented:

1. Sensor Fusion and Data Integration

  • Solution: Implement algorithms that combine data from multiple sensor types (satellites, ground cameras, IoT devices) to create a more comprehensive detection system. Use techniques like Kalman filters or Bayesian methods to integrate data with different confidence levels.
  • Impact: This would fill coverage gaps and provide continuous monitoring despite limitations of individual sensor systems.

2. Smart Deployment Optimization

  • Solution: Use optimization algorithms to determine the most effective placement of limited ground sensors. These algorithms would consider factors like historical fire patterns, population density, and terrain features.
  • Impact: Even with limited resources, optimized sensor placement could maximize coverage of high-risk areas and critical infrastructure.

3. Dynamic Resolution Enhancement

  • Solution: Apply super-resolution techniques to enhance the quality of satellite imagery, particularly in areas with known coverage limitations. These techniques use machine learning to increase effective resolution beyond hardware capabilities.
  • Impact: This would allow detection of smaller fires earlier using existing satellite infrastructure.

4. Temporal Gap Filling

  • Solution: Develop predictive models that can estimate fire risk during temporal gaps in satellite coverage. These models would use the last known conditions and predictive analytics to monitor areas during periods without direct observation.
  • Impact: This approach would provide continuous risk assessment even when sensors aren’t actively monitoring an area.

5. Edge Computing for Remote Sensors

  • Solution: Deploy edge computing capabilities with remote sensors to perform initial detection processing locally, reducing dependence on central communication infrastructure.
  • Impact: This would allow faster detection in areas with limited connectivity by enabling autonomous detection capabilities at the sensor level.

6. Drone-Based Gap Filling

  • Solution: Develop intelligent drone deployment systems that can automatically patrol areas with identified sensor coverage gaps, particularly during high-risk conditions.
  • Impact: This would provide flexible, on-demand coverage enhancement that can adapt to changing conditions and identified coverage weaknesses.

Simplified Computational Approaches for Sensor Coverage Limitations:

For systems that might not have the resources for complex AI solutions, simpler models could still improve detection capabilities:

1. Risk-Based Monitoring Schedules

  • Solution: Implement algorithms that allocate monitoring resources based on dynamic risk assessment. Areas with higher calculated risk would receive more frequent satellite tasking or camera monitoring.
  • Impact: This would maximize the utility of limited monitoring resources without requiring complex AI infrastructure.

2. Multi-Criteria Alerting

  • Solution: Develop simple rule-based systems that trigger alerts when multiple simple indicators suggest fire activity, even if no single indicator is conclusive.
  • Impact: This approach could reduce detection thresholds in a controlled way to identify potential fires earlier while managing false positive rates.

3. Community-Based Sensor Networks

  • Solution: Create simple algorithms to integrate and validate reports from distributed community sensor networks or mobile applications.
  • Impact: This would expand effective coverage by incorporating citizen reports with automated validation to filter out false reports.

Project Proposal - Why and Introduction to the Wildfire Detection System

Leveraging multi-source data integration to revolutionize wildfire detection and prediction through advanced machine learning technologies, with the primary goal of reducing detection time by 40% and improving prediction accuracy by 30%.

Objectives

  1. Multi-Source Data Integration
    • Analyze comprehensive fire detection data from satellite imagery, ground sensors, and weather forecasts
    • Use advanced data fusion techniques to create a unified detection platform
    • Develop predictive models that anticipate fire ignition and spread patterns
    • Create real-time alerting systems tailored to local conditions
  2. Machine Learning Model Development
    • Implement adaptive learning systems that continuously improve detection accuracy
    • Integrate multiple data sources including:
      • Satellite thermal and optical imagery
      • Ground-based camera networks
      • Weather and environmental sensors
      • Topographical and vegetation data
  3. Key Technology Solutions
    • Enhanced Satellite Imagery Processing
      • Super-resolution techniques for existing satellite data
      • Multi-spectral analysis for seeing through cloud cover
    • Computer Vision for Early Smoke Detection
      • CNN-based algorithms for processing camera feeds
      • Temporal analysis to distinguish smoke from other phenomena
    • Dynamic Fire Spread Prediction
      • Graph-based modeling of terrain and vegetation
      • Weather-integrated propagation forecasting

Technical Approach

Data Integration

  • Extract and process data from multiple satellite sources (MODIS, VIIRS, Landsat)
  • Develop robust preprocessing pipelines for multi-source data
  • Implement machine learning models using:
    • TensorFlow
    • PyTorch
    • Scikit-learn
    • NASA FIRMS data

Machine Learning Architecture

  1. Input Layer
    • Satellite imagery data
    • Ground sensor readings
    • Weather prediction data
    • Terrain and vegetation information
  2. Processing Layer
    • Computer vision models for detection
    • Graph neural networks for spread prediction
    • Reinforcement learning for resource allocation
  3. Output Layer
    • Early detection alerts
    • Fire spread visualization
    • Resource allocation recommendations
    • Performance metrics tracking

Expected Outcomes

  • 40% reduction in average fire detection time
  • 30% improvement in spread prediction accuracy
  • Enhanced resource allocation efficiency
  • Demonstration of AI leadership in disaster management technology

Community Impact: Protecting Fire-Prone Regions

Our wildfire detection and prediction project represents more than a technical solution—it’s a vital system that directly addresses life-threatening challenges facing communities in fire-prone regions across the world.

Specific Community Impacts

  1. Life Safety
    • Reduce evacuation timeframes through earlier detection
    • Provide more accurate spread predictions for:
      • Rural communities
      • Wildland-urban interface zones
      • Critical infrastructure locations
    • Potentially save lives through crucial extra hours of warning
  2. Environmental Protection
    • Minimize ecological damage through:
      • Faster containment of smaller fires
      • More effective resource allocation
      • Reduced overall burn acreage
    • Protect sensitive habitats and endangered species
    • Reduce carbon emissions from massive wildfires
  3. Economic Resilience
    • Reduce property damage costs through earlier intervention
    • Protect critical economic regions like:
      • Agricultural areas
      • Tourism destinations
      • Residential developments
    • Minimize disruption to local economies and livelihoods
  4. Resource Optimization
    • Provide data-driven insights for fire management agencies
    • Improve understanding of:
      • Optimal resource positioning
      • Most effective containment strategies
      • High-risk zones requiring extra monitoring
    • Support more intelligent emergency response decisions
  5. Quality of Life Protection
    • Reduce health impacts from smoke and air pollution
    • Decrease evacuation-related disruptions
    • Enhance community confidence in wildfire protection systems
    • Create more resilient communities through better preparation

Context of Our Community

Strategic Alignment

Our project directly supports:

  • National wildfire management initiatives
  • Climate adaptation strategies
  • Community resilience programs

Collaborative Potential

  • Partnership opportunities with:
    • Fire management agencies
    • Research universities
    • Satellite data providers
    • Local emergency management offices

Broader Vision

This isn’t just a technical demonstration—it’s a life-saving system that can transform how communities prepare for, detect, and respond to wildfire threats. —

Implementation Roadmap

Refer to Calendar (Linked on Table of Contents)

Success Metrics

  • Detection time reduction
  • Prediction accuracy improvements
  • Resource allocation optimization
  • Lives and property saved